A Criminologist’s Research-Driven Take on the Scam Crisis
Dr. David Maimon joins Erin to discuss what research reveals about online fraud, how scammers select their victims, and why we need to look in a different direction to prevent fraud.
Episode 51: Erin West sits down with Dr. David Maimon, a professor and cybercrime researcher, to dig into what the data tells us about online fraud, where it’s headed, how scammers select victims, and why our approaches to stopping them may need to change.
David’s research is grounded in evidence, not estimates. His team infiltrates thousands of criminal Telegram channels, darknet markets, and fraud networks to track emerging trends in real time. They also cross-reference their findings with application-level data from financial institutions to confirm what's happening. Current trends are alarming:
A dramatic rise in home equity line of credit (HELOC) account fraud targeting homeowners with high credit scores
Increasingly sophisticated AI-powered deepfakes and voice cloning used to build fake relationships at scale
The looming threat of agentic AI supercharging scam compound operations within the next 18 months
Watch now on YouTube.
Their conversation spans the science of nudging criminals away from victims — and victims away from criminal threat — the limits of law enforcement takedowns, and why the fraud-fighting community must urgently rethink its strategy before the numbers get even worse.
5 Things the Research Shows
1. HELOC fraud is a growing and documented trend.
Pig butchering scams are no longer just draining savings; they're putting victims into debt against their homes. It’s not speculation — it's a pattern confirmed by two different data streams. David's team identified a surge in home equity line of credit (HELOC) fraud by first observing criminals on Telegram discussing specific target profiles, then tracing corresponding clusters of new bank account applications linked to HELOC products.
2. Scammers use data to identify targets.
Before a fraudster invests significant time in a target, they research them thoroughly using open-source intelligence, data breach repositories, and services that sell full credit reports for as little as $80. They are specifically seeking victims with credit scores of 750 or above who own a home, because those are the people they can put into debt. Knowing how criminals are selecting targets should change how we think about our own digital footprint.
3. Deepfakes and voice cloning are real-time weapons.
At the Fraud Fight Club conference, David's team demonstrated live voice cloning and real-time face-swapping using freely available tools — the same techniques scammers in compounds use to build fake relationships with victims over video calls. The “three-finger test” — asking the person on the other end of a video call to wave three fingers in front of their face — once used to detect deepfakes, no longer works. Scammers can now move their entire body on screen without the image breaking.
4. We need to focus on preventing crimes before they occur.
Scientific research consistently shows that when law enforcement takes down dark web markets or scam infrastructure, criminal networks simply migrate elsewhere and often become more tightly knit. Disruption through takedowns is resource-intensive and produces limited long-term impact. A more promising approach is moving upstream, reaching potential victims before they’re targeted. We need to find opportunities for “behavioral nudging” to deflect victims from criminals before the grooming process begins, rather than intervening after the fact.
5. Agentic AI is the next frontier — and it’s arriving fast.
David predicts that within 18 months, scam operations run by groups in Nigeria, Ghana, and Southeast Asian compounds will begin deploying agentic AI at scale. They’ll have systems capable of conducting entire fraud campaigns autonomously, without a human scammer on the other end. The FBI IC3 losses we've already seen, staggering as they are, may look modest compared to what's coming if the fraud-fighting ecosystem doesn't get ahead of this shift now.
Call to Action
If this conversation alarmed you, it should. But alarm without action changes nothing.
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Scammers don't rely on victims being naive; they rely on targeting the right people, then investing weeks or months building trust. Anyone with a good credit score and a home is on their radar.
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Search your name, look at your social profiles, and consider what a stranger could learn about your finances, your family, and your address in 10 minutes of open-source searching. That's exactly what a fraud ring does before they reach out.
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The data shows patterns. Contact your bank, your representatives, and the platforms you use and ask what they're doing to share fraud intelligence across the ecosystem.
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Who Is Dr. David Maimon?
Dr. David Maimon serves as the Head of Fraud Insights at SentiLink, where he plays a pivotal role in bridging the gap between upstream fraud signals in the online fraud ecosystem and downstream fraud signals received by SentiLink partners. He is also a Professor in the Department of Criminal Justice and Criminology at Georgia State University and director of the Evidence-Based Cybersecurity Research Group.
With an extensive background in cybercrime, investigation, and fraud prevention, he previously held leadership positions at GeoComply and Vidocq Group. In 2023, he was honored as Educator of the Year by the Houston Chapter of the Association of Certified Fraud Examiners. Dr. Maimon has published books and scientific articles, and secured over $6 million in funding to conduct evidence-based cybersecurity research, further solidifying his impact in the field.
Useful Links
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Sponsors of Stolen
BioCatch prevents financial crime by recognizing patterns in human behavior, continuously collecting 3,000 anonymized data points – keystroke and mouse activity, touch screen behavior, physical device attributes, and more – as people interact with their digital banking platforms. With these inputs, BioCatch's models reveal patterns that distinguish the criminal from the legitimate.
Scamnetic is a leader in AI-powered scam detection and prevention, protecting individuals, businesses, and financial institutions from digital scams. With solutions like KnowScam and IDeveryone, Scamnetic delivers real-time scam insights, identity verification, and intervention. Restoring trust, reducing losses, and empowering organizations to safeguard customers in an increasingly complex digital world.
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